nerdleader

When I first learned about decision cycles I had a bit of an epiphany. I had been told my entire life to check my work, and I learned studying military strategy that “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week”. The idea behind decision cycles, i.e. that one would create a thought structure to:

1. take in information
2. build a plan
3. act on the plan
4. see how one did / aka “learn”
5. repeat

simply made intuitive sense to me, and I assume it makes intuitive sense to you, as well. By and large we are not building jet fighters and given decades and billions to accomplish it, so it is vital that we formulate plans and get marching quickly. This week let us review a few of the most common decision-making cycles that help us accomplish this goal in a repeatable fashion. Next week we will look at putting them to work for us.

Let us start with the Deming cycle – PDCA, or Plan, Do, Check, Act. This cycle was devised in the mid-twentieth century by W. Edwards Deming as a way to continuously improve quality, and is at the heart of statistical quality improvement methodologies such as Six Sigma and Lean Manufacturing. Plan, Do, and Check are about testing, and Act is about implementing what you have learned. From the ASQ:

1. Plan: Recognize an opportunity and plan a change.
2. Do: Test the change. Carry out a small-scale study.
3. Check: Review the test, analyze the results, and identify what you have learned.
4. Act: Take action based on what you learned in the study step.

Outside of quality, the PDCA cycle can be used iteratively in all manner of situations, if you are willing to test and learn.

Next, let us continue with quality thinking and review DMAIC, the core tool used with Six Sigma. DMAIC (pronounced “de-MAY-ik”) stands for Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control. DMAIC is conceptually related to PDCA in that the D, M, and A are about gathering good data so that a team can Plan, Do, Check, Act effectively within the I step.

1. Define: Define your problem statement
2. Measure: Quantify the problem and generate baselines
3. Analyze: Understand the data you have gathered and identify a root cause
4. Improve: Do the work of improving
5. Control: Learn, reinforce, and measure ongoing to ensure that changes have stuck

The new item here is “Control”. DMAIC recognizes that once a change is made it must be continually reinforced through regular checkups, measurement, and training. Culture eats strategy for breakfast, so part of changing and improving is culture modification.

The last cycle we will look at is the true tactical decision cycle, and my personal favorite. OODA stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act, and was created by a strategy wonk, COL John Boyd. It encapsulates and crystallizes those processes that effective warfighters have been using for millennia:

1. Observe: Understand where you are and where you need to get to
2. Orient: Evaluate your observations and options
3. Decide: Plan for the actions you will take
4. Act: Execute on your plan of attack

One of the largest predictors of success in a zero-sum environment involves OODA loops. Can you make decisions faster and more accurately than your competitors? If so, there is a simple outcome – you win. Obviously, there is an encyclopedia’s worth of nuance to that statement. But if you can execute your OODA loop faster than your competitor, and you can furthermore disrupt your competitor’s OODA loop, you are at that moment “winning”.

Now that we have reviewed three of the most important decision and action cycles, we can look at putting them into practice. See you next week.